World Cup Preview from a Casual Soccer Fan

Image from Bleacher Report

Let me start by saying this: I’m nowhere near as knowledgeable about soccer as basketball, baseball, and football. I only recently got into Champions League and EPL to a limited extent. That said, I’ve seen a decent bit of international soccer over the past few years, so here’s my take on each match in the knockout stage as well as my Knockout Stage Bracket (courtesy of FOX Sports):

Portugal-Switzerland

I’ll be upfront with my biases: I’m a Ronaldo fan. However, I don’t have a lot of faith in this group as whole. Even though Portugal won 2 of its 3 games, the wins weren’t extremely convincing. They beat Uruguay 2-0, but their second goal was a 93rd-minute penalty. Against Ghana, they were up 3-1, then they allowed a goal in the 89th minute. Not to mention one of their goals was a PK too. Maybe I’m just a based American, but I don’t really count penalty kicks when you look at a soccer score and use that as a measure of dominance. Then, in their final match against South Korea, even though they didn’t need to win, they gave up the game winning goal in the 90th minute. You can’t tell me that’s not bad juju heading into the next round. Regarding Switzerland, I saw them play against France and Spain in Euros 2020 and they played with an incredible cohesiveness that nearly took them to the semi-finals. In the World Cup group stage, they beat Serbia 3-2 and Cameroon 1-0 (all real goals), and only lost to the tournament favorite Brazil 1-0. Even in their loss, they looked composed. However, I wouldn’t expect this team to go much further. Although it pains me, I have to be honest. Prediction:

The Swiss advance over the Portuguese 2-1

Spain-Morrocco

In the Battle of Gibraltar, Spain looks to be the superior team, but not by a large margin. After bursting out the gates aflame and scorching Costa Rica 7-0, Spain cooled off tying Germany at one apiece and losing to Japan in a 2-1 thriller. To be honest, Spain’s last two games made them look extremely vulnerable. They started each game taking the lead but failed to capitalize on chances later allowing the opposing team back in each game. On the other hand, Morocco won its group, coming away with a huge win over Belgium and forced a tie against the runner-up in the last World Cup, Croatia. Though Morocco did not dominate the possession in any of the games they played, they made the most of their chances against Belgium (4 shots on goal, 2 goals) and Canada (2 shots on goal, 2 goals). Spain is the better team by a long shot, at least on paper, but I see them just barely squeaking by. Prediction:

The Spaniards send the Moroccans home 1-1 (penalties)

France-Poland

I thought Poland really underperformed in the group stage. They only scored 2 total goals, both of which came against their easiest opponent, Saudi Arabia. This is going to be a problem, as the defending champs, France, scored 6 goals in their first two group stage games, beating Australia 4-1 and Denmark 2-1. The French boast a talented roster and have shown their strength, whereas Poland has averaged 6.3 shots and had possession an average of 33.7% of the time in its group stage games. Something needs to change in Poland’s approach, or it’s going to be a long plane ride home to Warsaw. Prediction:

The French finish off the Polish 2-0

England-Senegal

Besides a surprising tie with the United States, England has been a force of nature beating Iran 6-2 and Wales 3-0. These lads have the talent and the team chemistry to take home the hardware, but Senegal isn’t going down without a fight. Senegal showed some firepower against Qatar and Ecuador, scoring 5 goals between the 2 matches, and although they lost 2-0 to the Netherlands, the opportunities were there - they just failed to convert on any. Unfortunately, I just don’t this squad competing with the ultra-talented England roster. Prediction:

The English eliminate the Senegalese 3-1

Brazil-South Korea

Even if South Korea had beaten both Uruguay and Ghana, I would still give my vote to Brazil. And that’s no disrespect to South Korea, because they played with ferocious tenacity against both Ghana and Portugal, and their captain Son Heung-min is a beast. However, as previously stated, I’m no soccer guru, but just watching Brazil’s ball movement and their ability to get the looks they do is pretty incredible. The mere amount of shots and shots on target Brazil has been able to rattle off per contest is impressive: 9/23 (v Serbia), 5/13 (v Switzerland), 7/21 (v Cameroon). Meanwhile, 11 teams throughout the group stage didn’t even average 9 shots per game. Sorry South Korea, you drew a bad hand. Prediction:

The Brazilians blowout the Koreans 3-0

Japan-Croatia

Japan has had the most insane trip to Qatar of any participating team. In their first game, despite having only a 26% share of possession and 12 shots compared to Germany’s 26, Japan edged out their former World War ally 2-1 scoring their goals in the 75th and 83rd minutes of the game. Then, after losing to Costa Rica despite looking like the better team in every facet of the game but the final score, the Rising Sun illuminated the way to Japan’s knockout stage berth as they scored 2 second-half goals beating Spain 2-1. Croatia comes into the knockout stage with a much less exciting story. The 2018 runner-up beat a dismal Canadian team 4-1, but only managed to tie with both Belgium and Morocco, failing to score in either contest despite having fantastic opportunities. While they’re definitely the lesser team on paper, Japan has shown their mettle and looks like the most probable Cinderella story for this World Cup. If Croatia struggles to convert on their chances, Japan will punish them for their missteps. Prediction:

The Japanese shock the Croats 1-0

Argentina-Australia

Australia was a bit of a surprise coming second in the group, though it should be noted they won their points from 1-0 victories over both Denmark and Tunisia. When you combine those victories that frankly could’ve gone either way depending on how the chances played out with Australia’s 4-1 embarrassment by France, the Aussie’s odds of making it past Argentina don’t look too hot. Argentina is 100% the better team, but their play in the group stage wasn’t so convincing either. Obviously, the loss against Saudi Arabia was a tough look, but to be fair, the Saudi goalkeeper Mohammed Al-Owais played like his life depended on it. They beat Mexico and Poland 2-0 each, and sure, a win’s a win, but they failed to convert on a number of opportunities and if they continue these struggles further down the road against tougher defenses, Messi will be waving goodbye to his chances of getting the one missing piece in his trophy case. Argentina should advance by a solid margin. Prediction:

The Argentinians defeat the Aussies 2-0

Netherlands-USA

Look, I’ll say it: the Netherlands is the more talented team. The Dutch are better at soccer. I don’t give a shit. Matt Turner hasn’t even had a real goal scored on him. Van Dijk, De Jong, and Depay are overrated and washed. As long as the Yankees can keep it within a score, Captain America can pull off some magic - he doesn’t need his pelvis. If you thought I was going to pick the so-called favorite in this one just to be “right”, you might as well call me a commie and call it a day. Prediction:

The Americans route the Dutch 2-1

My Bracket:

Summary:

1st: England

2nd: Brazil

3rd: Argentina